Politics

The ANC Admits it is Incapable of Leading – Even Under Cyril Ramaphosa

After more than 100 years of existence, and almost 30 years into power and continuous governance, the ANC still does not know how to govern itself well, and therefore the country. That is according to the ANC's Head of Political education, David Makhura.

Makhura spoke during the past weekend in the background of the ANC’s trip in China dubbed a ‘study tour’ of which he is a part.

According to David Makhura, they are still “drawing lessons on how to govern the ANC well.” That is why they had to travel all the way to China with several prominent individuals in the party. Among them were Fikile Mbalula, the current General Secretary of the party, Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams who is a cabinet minister and a few others.

David Makhura was right, the Communist Party of China governs itself very strictly. Many of us know that even though we have not been to China.

The South African voters are left with a choice to make with the 2024 national elections looming.

The Cyril Ramaphosa-led ANC is unaware, but they opened themselves up widely by getting on this trip, which perhaps is seen by them as something that will make voters think that they are serious about self-correction. However, the party put themselves into a position in which they now stand to be compared to a party that is deep rooted and has been consistently doing well for its country, even when it had a fair opportunity to turn out like the ANC.

To use Fikile Mbalula’s favourite word, that may turn out to be a ‘hullabaloo’.

Just to be clear, as was once confirmed by former ANC and state president Nelson Mandela, the ANC was not founded as, or to be a political party. It was founded to be a union of people from different walks of life and with different ideologies, who were united strictly for the purpose of fighting against the political system of apartheid in South Africa.

Struggling to Adapt

More than 100 years later, the Cyril Ramaphosa-led ANC is in power as the ruling party of South Africa but is unable to transform its mentality to fit its agenda into the right mode for it to be able to address the challenges  that are faced by South Africans. The party still sees itself as a liberation movement and preaches radicalism in the old-fashioned way that does not have any meaningful implications in the current settings of the economy.

The aim of the ANC since the age of the Morogoro conference has been to establish a socialist state, which is more of what the Communist Party of China has always been saying it seeks to achieve in China. However, unlike their Chinese counterpart, the ANC has failed as result of taking the prescripts of the ideology of socialism dogmatically without seeking to adapt them to the conditions of South Africa, which is the opposite of what the CPC has been successfully doing all the years in China.

The ANC has been pursuing a development programme that it calls the National Democratic Revolution with little to no success.

The NDR has a strong anti-capitalist tone and that poses a challenge for the ANC in the present  world in the sense that the grouping among its leadership ranks that has realised the anti-capitalist tone is no longer relevant and seek to promote free market policies cannot do so since it is stuck in an alliance with the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions that won’t budge on their belief on a socialist economy in the fundamental sense which seeks to have excessive direct participation and ownership of the government in the economy.

That lack of consensus in the alliance has the ANC stuck in a pool of mud, unable to move forward.

From Over-regulation to the Brink of Collapse

The ANC, much like the Communist Party of China, sees central planning of the economy as vital to achieve certain economic outcomes. However, whereas the CPC has mostly done its planning in such a way that it allows the free market to flourish, the ANC has mostly choked the free market with excessive regulation of the economy which has not worked out so well for the country.

South Africa is at the brink of collapse as it sees capital flight, political instability and an uncertain future for the ANC which might see itself out of majority rule after the 2024 elections.

That part scares the market even more since they believe that if the ANC is crushed below the 50 + 1% required to claim a majority in the elections, it will be forced to get into a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters of Julius Malema, who is largely perceived to be against free market operations.

The markets think that if the ANC gets into a coalition with Julius Malema’s party, the left-leaning leader who is known for making excessive demands will force the ANC into policies that are not favourable for the economy and lead to its total collapse.

A Poisoned Chalice

The strong dependence of the ANC on the SACP and COSATU for support in order to dominate voting results and maintain power means that the ANC has to tread carefully in terms of straying from dogmatically following socialism because that may strain relations within the alliance.

In other words, the ANC will not be completely free to pursue free market policies before its alliance partners open up to them since it is beholden to them for support. The same is believed will be true in a coalition with Julius Malema’s EFF.

The ANC’s alliance partners’ refusal to accept free market operations and policies was made clear when in his State of the Nation Address (SONA), Cyril Ramaphosa openly said that the private sector is responsible for creating jobs, which resulted in a lot of discontent, opposition, and criticism from alliance partners.

Such was also the case in the 1990s when the GEAR policy of the Thabo Mbeki-led ANC government was criticised for being neo-liberal although it did have somewhat of a positive effect on the economy. Thabo Mbeki is largely regarded as the only ANC president whose economic policies were largely implemented and had positive effects on the economy.

The Inability to Innovate

The ANC keeps maintaining and expanding the Black Economic Empowerment policy that has proved to have failed in its intentions but enriched only a few politically connected elites.

The BEE is a marketing tool the ANC uses to attract gullible middle-class voters who hope to somehow benefit from the policy, but in reality, it has not done much. In fact, it is now seen by many in the business world as being too pervasive and, on its way to paralyse healthy businesses.

The ANC got into an agreement some years back with the Communist Party of China, which is meant to see ANC members being trained in China by the CPC. This is more than admission by the ANC that it is has no idea what it is doing after more than 100 years in existence.

The Discord Between Leagues

The absence of concert among ANC leagues is another issue that has exposed the ANC’s inability to govern and lead.

For example, the youth division of the party, being the ANC Youth League, has recently shown in an open manner, its support for Russia’s course in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine even though the official position of the ANC and the South African government is that of ‘neutrality’ on the matter.

That is a very delicate matter on which there must be a concerted public response more especially from those entities directly associated with the ruling party because of the high stakes involved. However, the ANC has not shown serious leadership in that as in many other matters.

All Talk No Action

A lack of implementation of policies by the ANC is part of the reason it is failing in transforming South Africa.

Look, every generation of leadership of the Communist Party of China has brought evolution in the direction and nature of ideology and economic policy of the country. The ANC has not evolved and has stayed true to its socialist views that have been at its centre since its early years.

Most of the ANC’s leaders, except perhaps for Thabo Mbeki, have not been able to formulate and implement truly transformative policies that changed the South African economy for the better and make a serious difference in the lives of poor South Africans.

It may be argued that the ANC’s biggest achievement after the dawn of democracy is South Africa’s social welfare programme.

By looking at the ANC’s history, you can say with confidence that the party was only more productive and effective during the years of Oliver Tambo, Walter Sisulu, Nelson Mandela and their peers.

The late 2000s saw the rise of populist politics and sloganeering within the ANC, which came out to supress the intellectually capacitated within the party. Even when their counterpart, the Chinese Communist Party was doing great things in China during that time engaged in politics of real change, the ANC did not learn anything.

Perhaps at that time the party was a bit cocky because it was still running at the back of success of the Thabo Mbeki-led economic performance which was commendable compared to what would be seen thereafter.

Lack of Self-Preservation

The ANC can now be compared to somebody that can’t swim, in a large swimming pool, close enough to reach the edge of the pool by an arm stretch and get out of the pool but instead, they are calling out to the guy that can swim to show them how to swim whilst still in that pool and choking.

How about getting out the pool for preservation, watch the other guy swim, then test your skills in a small pool where you still have access, and then be sure of your skills before going back into the large pool?

Why can’t the ANC take a break, fix itself and then comeback? I mean, it is like trying to fix a car in the middle of traffic.

Okay, maybe it is because it just does not work like that in politics.

The ANC’s populist politics created a cloud and hype among the youth of South Africa and the uneducated, giving corrupt ANC leaders  space to pursue corruption activities unabated until there was too much damage done so much that it would have been suicide for the leadership of the party to expose and act on the corruption, therefore leaving the country and the party badly divided, at the crossroads, with elements of anarchy starting to show.

Lack of Expertise Among the Ranks and the Consequences.

The lack of emphasis on education, expertise and certain qualities by the ANC in its membership recruitment drives is somewhat of a problem and a break from the founding era of the party wherein intellectual capacity was taken very seriously in its leadership ranks, as is still being done in the Communist Party of China.

How do you ensure efficiency when you are running a party with people that do not possess any clear and specific expertise? How do you gain the legitimacy to motivate people to seek education and skills when you preside over them and you do not possess a record of meaningful education?

It is explainable why there is a lack of credible leaders within the ANC. That is due to the absence of an elaborate development and political education scheme that is inspired by foresight and seeks to ensure continuity in the organisation as well as smooth leadership succession.

When there are credible leaders in the ruling party, that means there are no credible leaders in government since government leaders are the same people leading the party.

That problem has spilled over into the country’s state-owned entities such as Eskom where party cadres have been deployed and ran the utility the same way the ANC runs its party – with no foresight and no preparation for the future. Much like ‘make it up as you go’.

 

Learning from the Young and the Efficient

Perhaps it is true that age is just a number. The ANC was founded in 1912, and official documents say the Chinese Communist Party was founded in 1921, making the ANC older than the CPC. However, the ANC is now taking lessons from the CPC on how to govern itself.

Imagine asking your younger sibling, who is 9 years your junior, to teach you how to control yourself and lead your followers. You would be a mess at that point, right?

The Kuomintang – a right wing party in China which the communist party sought to dislodge from power, came to lose influence and support due to its inability to govern itself efficiently and engaging in corrupt activities, in that order making the opposition CPC stronger. You would expect that if the ANC knows the CPC, then it would know that part of history too and to have learned from it.

Much like the current leader of the CPC and president of China Xi Jinping, Cyril

Ramaphosa came into power through an anti-corruption ticket. Although both men did follow up on that with some action, it had to be backed up by an equally stellar action that would transform the economy for the better, which is where Xi Jinping was able to do better unlike Cyril Ramaphosa.

Overtime, the direction and nature of the CPC’s ideology and economic policy opened the economy more and more for private companies and market forces to play a role in resource allocation. The leaders were pragmatic, not true to ancient word on paper but the people of China and their circumstances.

 

 

Greater Unemployment is Looming in South Africa.

The trend of the unemployment rate over the last years and the prevailing circumstances in the country signal only the worst to come.

Earlier this week Statistics South Africa released an unemployment rate that showed an increase from the previous report. The rate now stands at 32.9% up from the 32.7% previously reported. The report also shows that the number of people added into employment during the reporting period dwindled, and the youth is still by far the most affected.

The ongoing energy crisis in the country has created strenuous circumstances for businesses and as a result they cannot expand to absorb labour since many of them are forced to operate for less hours of the day which results in less production and reduced revenue. All of this is happening while ruling party ministers are still yet to implement any plan that will see additional power capacity added into the grid. The slow deregulation of business and the questionable appointments of political leaders such as is the case with the last two mayors of the city of Johannesburg, Thapelo Amad and Kabelo Gwamanda, are neither enticing investors nor building confidence among consumers in the economy.

Both the South African Reserve Bank and the Department of Treasury are aligned with the World Bank and the IMF on the stark outlook of the South African economy. The inconsistent GDP growth that fluctuates within a low tight range is not helping the course of employment. Among other unpredictable factors are the public sector employees who can bend the government to their will and demand large pay increases in the middle of crisis, forcing the government into borrowing more money and leaving little of the rand for internal development which in turns takes away those scrappy government jobs that a portion of the youth look to for a few bills to get by.

Should we not get out of the above outlined situation soon, things will not get any better but worse. The country’s citizenry will be left in a place where they will remain destitute or create opportunities now out of the little resources that are still accessible.

 

The Cost of Stalling the Karpowership Project Seems to be Higher Than the Project Itself.

The Karpowership project has been blocked for years now and it seems while opposition against it drags on, things keep getting worse and worse in the country. Unemployment keeps going high and GDP keeps dwindling among other things.

For years now the country has been plunged into near total darkness by the incapable Eskom power utility which is unable to generate enough electricity to keep the lights on for 24 hours a day.

Karpowership, an energy company from Turkey that manufactures power ships that produce electricity and feed it into the grid have availed a solution to cover the shortfall in the power that Eskom supplies. Whereas the project has the support of the country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa and a few other prominent ministers in his cabinet, the Democtratic Alliance is in opposition of it and has called for alternative ways to cover the shortfall. The tender for the project has been rewarded already, however the commencement of power production has been blocked by numerous court challenges lodged by several business parties and environmental groups, as well as unending environmental assessments by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment.

The truth is that as much as the project is going to cost South Africa an amount of around R200 billion over a duration of 20 years, there is even a greater cost in the stalling of a final decision on the issue. Beyond the environmental challenges that are raised by those in opposition of the project, economic production keeps on deteriorating and threatens long-term stability. A persistently deteriorating rate of production negatively affects government’s social programs as well as the lives of ordinary South Africans whose opportunity out of life’s miseries can be found in a flourishing economy that is perhaps only a few more kilowatts of electricity away. It goes without saying that the worse that things get in the economy would be the more destitute the lives of struggling South Africans get. It may be argued that South Africa is already a failed state, so imagine if things got worse than they already are.

On the positive side, the interesting thing about money is that if you invest it and take care of the investment, it will make back the money you invested in it and more. Hypothetically speaking, the R200 billion that will be used over the 20-year duration of the Karpowership contract can possibly be returned by the economy before the end of that 20 years if the intended benefits of such an investment are realised. The Democratic Alliance argues that the money can be used to construct two more power stations which will be a better investment compared to the Karpowership project, however, can those power stations be completed well in time to come and help businesses and South Africans with the electricity that they need now? Would it not be a good idea to secure the current shortfall with Karpowership and then work on the side for the creation of extra power stations that will cover supply when the Karpowership contract lapses? On the issue of environmental costs, if other countries such as Brazil, Guinea Bissau, and Zambia among others are doing it then can’t we also quickly find a way to make it work as safely as possible before things get worse?

At the end of the day, if the country can get extra power injected into the grid, that will be a big win for all races and ethnicities regardless of political affiliation, ideology, or religion.